Monday, 17 October 2016

Timeline: Corrie McKeague

UPDATED: 21/10/16

 Timeline of events relating to the disappearance of Corrie McKeague, last seen in Bury St Edmunds (Suffolk) on the morning of Saturday 24th September 2016. All times are UK BST; some timings are approximate.

 Corrie McKeague is 23 years of age, approximately 5ft 10 inches tall, medium build and speaks with a Scottish accent. He is currently serving with the RAF Regiment, based at RAF Honington in Suffolk.

 If you were in Bury St Edmunds on the evening of 23rd September or the early hours of 24th September 2016 or have any information which could help to establish the whereabouts of Corrie McKeague, please contact Suffolk Police on 01473 782019 or the independent charity Crimestoppers anonymously on 0800 555 111.
Corrie McKeague

Friday 23rd September 2016

2300 approx: drives from RAF Honington to Bury St Edmunds, where he joins friends for a night out.
Saturday 24th September 2016

 Before 0100: Drinking with friends in Flex nightclub in Bury St Edmunds.

 0100 approx: Leaves the nightclub and parts company with friends; walks to Pizza Mama Mia on St Andrew's Street North where he orders takeaway food. Seen on shop CCTV playing "rock, paper, scissors" with another customer.

 0120 approx: Seen on CCTV released by Suffolk Police 02/10/16 crossing St Andrew's Street North and entering Brentgovel Street. NB: the two blurred out figures in the video have been identified and are not sought by police.

 Shortly after 0120: Goes into Hughes shop doorway to eat takeaway and then falls asleep.

 0308: Sends a picture message to a friend from his Nokia Lumia 435 mobile phone.
Nokia Lumia 435 mobile phone
0324: Seen by CCTV leaving the shop doorway and walking in the direction of the Cornhill shopping centre. Goes out of view of the camera walking towards the rear of shops at the junction of Brentgovel Street and Short Brackland.

 0324+: No further confirmed sighting after this time.

 0400 approx*: Mobile phone detected within range of Bury St Edmunds mast.

 0800 approx*: Mobile phone detected within range of mast near Barton Mills, approximately 12 miles to the north-west of Bury St Edmunds. No further indication of the phone's whereabouts after this time.

 * NB: It is now confirmed that the phone took 28 minutes to travel from the Bury St Edmunds area to Barton Mills area. This timing is believed to coincide with the movement of a private bin lorry which made a collection of 11kg of recyclables from a single bin at the point of the last sighting.
Monday 26th September 2016

Afternoon: Reported to police as missing by base staff at RAF Honington after failing to turn up for work.
Monday 26th September onward

 Extensive ground and water searches carried out by Suffolk Police, SULSAR, NSARDA and RAF search teams in the Bury St Edmunds area and along possible routes between the town, RAF Honington and Barton Mills, including off-road routes based on a witness suggestion that Corrie McKeague intended to walk back to his base. 

 Additional searches for the mobile phone within the Barton Mills mast area. 

 Continuing appeals for information, private CCTV footage and property checks. 

 Extensive social media and poster campaign by members of the public and businesses across East Anglia in association with Corrie McKeague's family.
3rd October 2016

 Private bin lorry seized and searched by Suffolk Police following a suggestion that its movements on the morning of 24/9/16 matched those of the mobile phone. Nothing found.
9th October 2016

 Three potential witnesses identified and interviewed following an appeal by Suffolk Police. Unclear whether any new information was forthcoming as a result.

 21st October 2016

 Suffolk Police release CCTV of last known movements and appeal for potential new witnesses from Pizza Mama Mia to come forward.
For the latest information or to download a printable poster, please visit the Suffolk Police website.
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Thursday, 4 February 2016

Timeline: Saddleworth moor mystery man

Timeline of events relating to the death of an unidentified man on the track to Chew Reservoir near Greenfield, Oldham put together from various press reports. Anyone who recognises this man or with information should phone police on 0161 856 8972 or the independent charity Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555 111.

Friday 11th December 2015

Before 0900: Seen on CCTV walking around Ealing, West London

0904: Seen on CCTV at Ealing Broadway station buying a ticket to Euston station (£4.80)

CCTV images from Ealing Broadway station 0904 11/12/15
0904-0950: Travels to Euston by underground

0950: Buys return ticket from London Euston to Manchester Piccadilly (£81.50)

1000: Departs London Euston by train

1207: Arrives Manchester Piccadilly station

 CCTV footage from Manchester Piccadilly station 1229 11/12/15

1207-1229: Remains in Piccadilly station, visits various shops (including Boots and M&S), buys food.
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1229: Seen on CCTV descending stairs at Piccadilly station
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1229-1257: Remains in Piccadilly station, visits various shops (as prior to 1229)

1257 approx: Spends four minutes at an enquiry point - nature of enquiries unknown

1301 approx: Leaves Piccadilly station via Fairfield Street entrance (taxi rank & pick up/drop off points), but returns shortly after. Unclear as to whether he actually goes to the taxi rank before returning.

1303: Leaves Piccadilly station by the main entrance (towards Station Approach/Piccadilly)

1303-1405: Travels from Manchester to Greenfield - method of transport currently unknown.

1405 approx: Enters the Clarence Hotel, Chew Valley Road, Greenfield. Asks landlord Mel Robinson for directions - reports vary slightly on exact wording, either asking "the way to the mountains" or "How do you get to the top of that mountain?". Mr Robinson provided directions, but is reported to have advised against making the ascent due to the time and weather conditions. He described the man as having a northern accent, but not local to the area.

1630: Seen by RSPB wardens standing beside Chew Track "about two thirds of the way up" to Chew Reservoir. Other reports state that "witnesses spotted him about a mile up the steep track to the summit at 4.30pm. A second witness saw him about three-quarters of the way to the top..."

Saturday 12th December 2015

1045: Body discovered by passing cyclist lying on the sloping ground beside a layby on Chew Track above Dovestone Reservoir [map]. Body is described as lying "face upwards and head pointing towards the summit. His legs were together and arms by his side. The body was in full view." Initial reports state the man was carrying only £130 in ten pound notes and three rail tickets (the tube ticket and the outward/return portions of the rail ticket). Police later reveal that he was also carrying an empty Thyroxine Sodium pot of a type originating from GlaxoSmithKline in Karachi, Pakistan.

Thyroxine Sodium pot found (empty) on body
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Tuesday, 2 February 2016

Photos & links: Saddleworth moor mystery man (aka Chew Track man)

Various photos and press links regarding an unidentified man aged 65-75, who died on the track to Chew Reservoir near Greenfield (Oldham) 11th-12th December 2015. Anyone who recognises this man or with information should phone police on 0161 856 8972 or the independent charity Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555 111.

CCTV Ealing Broadway tube station 9.04am 11/12/15

CCTV Manchester Piccadilly railway station 12.29pm 11/12/15

 GMP video of CCTV at Piccadilly 12.29pm 11/12/15

Thyroxine Sodium pot found (empty) on body 12/12/15
Manchester Evening News:
1. Police appeal to identify walker found dead near Oldham reservoir carrying just cash and train tickets
2. Mystery of Indian's Head: Why did smartly-dressed pensioner travel from London to Saddleworth to die on a hillside?
3. Was man who went to Dovestone Reservoir to die the boy survivor of tragic 1949 plane crash?
4. Dovestone plane crash survivor is not mystery man found dead at Indian's Head
5. Had mystery man found dead at Indian's Head been missing for 20 years?
Saddleworth Independent:
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Thursday, 27 February 2014

Chevaline: telling the time (2)

Attempting to match the reported time of the "last family photo" (3.17pm French summer time) on 5/9/12 with the time based on a calculation of solar azimuth and elevation - effectively using the building in the image as a giant sundial.

The 'last family photo'
Solar azimuth prediction for photo location at 3.17pm 5/9/12
The first task is to establish the length of of the shadows cast by the building onto the ground. As luck would have it, the solar elevation for 3.17pm is near enough 45 degrees - so the length of a shadow on the ground is going to be pretty much the same as the height of the object casting it. Thus, we can get an idea of shadow length using a series of squares drawn to match the height of part of the building casting the shadow:

 
Calculate shadow length

In the image above, a series of squares shows the length of shadows which would be cast by the sun at elevation 45 degrees if shining from the stream side of the building, perpendicular to the ridge line of the roof and street frontage. The next thing is to transfer this measurement to an overhead view of the building, then turn it to match the azimuth:


In the image above, the red square is an indication of shadow length, effectively one of the red squares from the previous image dropped on its side. The yellow line is the azimuth, the sun shining from the South-West. The blue squares are copies of the red square rotated parallel to the azimuth. Joining the top corners of the blue squares, the black line gives an indication of where the edge of the building's shadow would fall in the road. On this basis it can be seen that the shadow area seen in the family photo is commensurate with the calculation for 3.17pm - but it's a very close-run thing. The shadow line would fall only just beyond the left-hand edge of the photo, almost intersecting with the bottom left corner.

Also, in the image above, green lines indicate an estimation of where shadows are cast from various angles of the roof: two lines of equal length at the rear of the building and a longer line from the ridge line of the roof due to its greater height. The two rear lines were estimated on the basis of being roughly equivalent to the height of the gutter at the front and the ridge height, as with the original gutter height is calcualted by taking a 45 degree line down to ground level. Note that these are heights to the road level, in reality the shadows would be longer due to the lower level of the stream. Joining the top points of the green lines to the black line in the road provides a rough outline of the shadow area cast by the building at 3.17pm.

Black line marks approximate shadow outline at 3.17pm
Doing this, however, brings us up against a problem: the outline appears nowhere near the visible line of shadow seen on the stream in the family photo. By taking the azimuth round to 4.17pm, we start to get a roof shadow line close to the position seen in the photo. But then we encounter another problem: by that time the two adults seen in the photo had been shot dead.

Time for plan B...

Update 27/2/14

As it turns out, there is no need for plan B - I simply needed to get plan A right. When drawing in the green lines to indicate shadow length from the roof I failed to take the oblique angle of the satellite image into account. Taking an estimate of the offset from the ridge line to the ground at the opposite end of the building (see image above) and shortening the green ridge line at the top by that amount (as well as reducing the other green lines proportionately) brings the shadow line down to pretty much exactly down to the point calculated by Max at:

 http://deadzone61.wordpress.com/tck-forum-public/comment-page-6/#comment-2741

I should also give credit to http://www.iesmith.net/tools/solarcalc.html which is the online azimuth calculator used. Other online calculators are available and probably worth using for verification, but this one appeared to be the most straightforward.
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Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Chevaline: telling the time

Various media sources have reported that the last photos were taken by the al Hilli family between 3.12pm and 3.17pm French time (GMT+2) on the afternoon of 5th September 2012. Nonetheless, a question that frequently comes up on internet forums is "what if the clock on the phone/camera wasn't set to French time?"

Thanks to the release last week by BFMTV of what they reported as being "the last family photo" it is now possible to clarify the issue by using the information provided by the shadows visible in the image in conjunction with a calculation of solar azimuth (bearing) and elevation (height) - in effect using the building shown in the photo as a sundial.

So, simple question first:

Was the photo taken before or after 3pm?


The "last family photo" as published by BFMTV
In the photo, a clear line of shadow cast by the buiding is visible to the right of the frame, so we know there was direct sunlight on the day. Making a calculation of time based on this line is complicated, however, by the irregular shape of the building and the pitch of the roof - the shadow appears to run nearly parallel to the road, but when perspective is taken into account it is clear that this is not the case.

The background building from the front and above
As luck would have it, however, we don't need to worry about the shadow on the right since at 3pm on 5/9/12 the solar azimuth is almost exactly parallel to the roof line of the building:

Solar azimuth 3pm - the sun shining from direction SSW

Thus, at 3pm the gutter running along the street frontage of the building will cast a shadow directly below itself, forming a line of shadow along the grass strip below it (see Google Streetview image, above). Any time before 3pm and the sun will be shining directly onto the street frontage. At any time after this the shadow line will start to move out into the street as the sun moves around the sky towards the west.



Going back to the original photo at the top of this post, it is clear that the street frontage of the building is in the shade and there is no visible dividing line of direct sunlight and shade at the left of the frame, indicating that by the time it was taken the shadow line had already moved into the road.

Thus, it is clear that the photo was taken after 3pm.

Next comes the rather more complicated task of establishing whether the shadows in the photo match the reported time of 3.17pm...



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Saturday, 28 April 2012

Gareth Williams: Circus tricks (2)

Having previously said I wouldn't give consideration to motives in relaton to Gareth Williams' death, I would add this:

Murder aside, most of the theories currently abroad centre around his personal life when looking for reasons as to why he would get into a holdall but there is a very small, if apparently unlikely outside chance of an operational motive: in 2011, Spanish police arrested two men who had been involved in a series of robberies from the luggage of passengers travelling in a coach between Girona and Barcelona. One of the pair would hide inside a suitcase and be loaded into the hold of the coach, then emerge during the journey to raid the suitcases of other passengers, before returning to the suitcase in time for arrival in Barcelona. A bizarre MO to be sure but, then again, who would have imagined that SIS were using a spy rock in Moscow until it became news?

Otherwise, I fear that Gareth Williams deliberately intended to take his own life. The inquest has heard that he was a model employee who failed only one assessment in his career. It also heard that this failure caused him intense disappointment at the time, but that he took the course again and passed showing huge improvement.

The inquest has also heard from another witness that he failed his initial training course for secondment to SIS in 2007. So, given that he only failed one assessment in his career, it seems clear that this was the assessment he failed. It seems, therefore that GW was extremely keen to achieve the move from Cheltenham to London.

And taking the evidence of his former landlady Jennifer Elliot into account regarding the 'escapology' incident in 2007, the question is raised over whether the two events are related. The suggestion would be that, rather than seeking a move to London, GW was seeking a move away from Cheltenham, perhaps as a result of embarrassment over the incident at Elliot's house. From other witnesses, it certainly seemed that GW was much happier at GCHQ than SIS.

Moving on to 2010 and Helen Yelland's call to police to report GW missing - she mentioned that he had been "pulled from a job and wasn't sure how he'd taken it". When questioned as to where she got the information, she was unclear, but the suggestion is that, contrary to previous claims in the press GW may have been leaving SIS 'under a cloud' and was not as keen to return to Cheltenham as has been said.

Ultimately, though, if Gareth Williams did get into the bag himself, his motivation may never be known for certain. From his school days onward, he was widely regarded as a genius and perhaps, after ten years of solving puzzles he decided to set one that the rest of us can only imagine we might one day understand.

Certainly, this is one 'circus' trick that will not be forgotten in a hurry.

UPDATE

It's a good while since I posted on this and, reading back through, I find myself slightly surprised at some of my own conclusions. Bearing in mind the area in which he was known to have been working and having since looked at the background and family connections of some of the people with whom he was known to associate towards the end of his life, I would say "all bets are off" as to the cause of his death, which now seems equally likely to have been the result of a "work related injury" - an injury that prematurely ended a (very) long game aimed at infiltrating a major international money-laundering organisation.

I'm not sure that injurylawyers4u.com would have much joy pursuing this one in court though.
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Gareth Williams: Circus tricks

Like plenty of others this week, I have been following the inquest into the death of Gareth Williams, the GCHQ/SIS officer whose body was discovered in a padlocked holdall in his London flat in August 2010. Since that time, the internet has been home to a host of conspiracy theories on the matter and, since the inquest has once again sparked a wave of interest in the case, there will no doubt be plenty more to come.

Perhaps unsurprisingly given the nature of Gareth Williams work and the details of the case, the overwhelming majority of theories centre on a murder plot by an intelligence agency or criminal organisation, but I though I would put up an alternative suggestion by way of balance. This is by no means a comprehensive theory, of course, and there are several details in terms of forensic evidence (or the lack thereof) which appear to contradict it, but until the post mortem evidence is heard at the inquest on Monday, I believe it remains a possibility, if an increasingly small one.

Murder aside, there are several other theories as to why he ended up in the bag, most of which are centred on his private life. But what I am looking to consider here is not so much why he ended up there, as how. So:

Would it have been possible for Gareth Williams to get into the bag himself?

Despite the somewhat bizarre efforts of Peter Faulding, the Mackay experiments (Daily Mail - upper video) appear to show that someone of Williams' size and build could get into the bag and operate the zips from within. Of course, Mackay's assistant was unable to secure the padlock, but his suggestion remained that it might not be impossible with practice and the kind of hand strength that GW would have gained from mountaineering.

From a personal point of view though, after seeing both attempts at reconstruction, I am left with the feeling that if they wanted to do this properly, rather than military experts, the police would have done better to employ someone from the circus (no pun intended - well, maybe a bit).

Why was the bag in the bath?

One thing that struck me watching the Mackay reconstruction video is the way that his assistant in the bag had to be handed the padlock after dropping it in his efforts to close the bag. Perhaps this was a lesson that GW had learned through previous attempts - that by placing the bag in the bath he was able to ensure that if the padlock was dropped, it would slide down the bath side and back towards the bag within easy reach. On a hard floor, the padlock could bounce or slide away from the bag, meaning that GW would potentially have to get out of the bag to retrieve it.

Considering a possible suicidal motivation - it might also be that GW wanted to minimise the trauma and inconvenience to whoever discovered his body. I believe that it is by no means uncommon for suicides to tidy up extensively before taking their own lives.

Is the position of the zips significant?

Watching the Mackay reconstruction video, it can be seen that the attempt is made to join the zip sliders at a point where the zipper turns the corner of the flap, roughly in line with the position of the assistant's face. Comparing this with the Met Police photo of the actual bag, it appears that this corresponds to the position of the zips when GW's body was discovered by PC Gallagher. It appears that this would be the position best suited to attempt the closing manoeuvre from inside the bag, while perhaps being an unlikely place to join the zips for a third party closing the bag from outside.

As an aside, the bag shown in the Met photo appears to be of a slightly different design to the images of the North Face Basecamp XL Duffle currently being used by the press - there appears to be a right-angled seam to the right of the zip sliders on the police photo, suggesting a square end to the bag, rather than the cylindrical shape of the current model. I believe it has been noted that the bag used by GW was produced up to 2006. Note also that the cut in the police photo was made by the officers who discovered the body on 23rd August 2010.

Why was there blood on the padlock?

According to evidence heard at the inquest, small traces of GW's blood were found on the padlock and the outside of the bag. The pathology/post mortem evidence is due to be heard on Monday (30.4.12) but, in the meantime I would suggest that it might be the result of graze injuries to GW's knuckles in his attempts to close the upper (right hand in Met photo) zip using his fingernails from within, in combination with the use of the padlock looped through the eye of the lower (left hand) zip slider to pull it up. Roughly - that GW grazed his knuckles on the upper zip and then transferred the blood on his fingers to the padlock and the outside of the bag.

On the other hand, if this were the case, you might expect to see traces on the inside of the bag, where he would presumably have had to push the lock closed through the fabric. Either way, as it stands I believe that any post mortem evidence of grazed knuckles of fingernail damage on Monday may prove highly significant.

See also: Circus tricks - part 2
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